Initially, Japan would be a $9.4bn casino market, of which $8.8bn would be gaming revenue, the UBS equity team has stated in an 84-page report.
The report also looks at the implications for companies in surrounding nations and at which non-gaming companies would benefit from Japanese legalisation. After 10 years, the UBS team estimates, Japan would grow to $18.4bn. That assumes a casino each in Tokyo and Osaka and three outlying casino resorts.
Internationally, UBS sees little impact on Macau, because it draws mainly from China. The Philippines is expected to grow into a $4.4bn market by 2017 and Japan would have mixed results on the three publicly listed casino developers there, with Melco Crown having the least impact and Bloomberry’s Solaire most at risk.
Korea could respond by liberalising its own gaming laws and becoming a stronger competitor, though the percentage of Japanese comprising the Korean market would fall from 20 to five, UBS thinks. If Korea does liberalise, the market could grow from $2.3bn to $10bn by 2020, UBS says.
Source: Fantini's Gaming Report
