If we decided to break online poker legislation in California into a battle between the good guys and the bad guys, what would it look like? You might well be surprised at the answer.

California

Good guys

Poker operators, local Indian tribes, state legislators and politicians, the general poker-playing public, the public.

Bad guys

Poker operators, local Indian tribes, state legislators and politicians, the general poker-playing public, the public.

Hardly a spot the difference competition on the surface! So let’s look a bit closer at what is preventing California from achieving what states such as Delaware, Nevada and New Jersey have accomplished.

‘Good guys’

Both Amaya/PokerStars and Caesars are aligned with local Indian tribes and have a clear view of what they would like to see – much of which, however, is tied up in various legislative bills that have become embroiled in controversy and opposition from similar, but opposing, factions.

‘Bad guys’

There is a strong coalition of tribes that is refusing to budge on the issue of online poker in California – primarily because of the impact they feel it might have on overall gaming, including racetracks. The Pechanga Band of Luiseño Indians of Temecula have joined forces with six other tribes and is a strong body with a loud voice.

Racetracks, the public and state legislature

Coupled with the racetrack marketers, there has been much discussion and very little agreement on the proposals so far.

The tribes against legislation don’t want racetracks involved in any licensing, those for the pro-gaming bills see that such licensing is the only way forward – but also need the tribal support to pass any bill. Such is the quandary facing the Californian regulatory debate.

The public, on the other hand, have never formed any strong movement pushing for legislation, despite over one million Californians supporting the idea in principle. A summer poll conducted by All-In magazine showed some extremely encouraging figures for the pro-poker lobby.

According to John Pappas of the Poker Players Alliance: “The survey results serve to reinforce that internet poker regulation is the right direction for California,” adding that “regulation will provide strong consumer protections and tax revenue, and the survey confirms that it would be complementary to the existing tribal casinos.”

But this has to be translated into an actual movement of some kind, and at the moment the state legislature has been left in a no-man's-land; with no public demand forcing them to deal with the issue and multiple arguments from each side - coupled with more serious problems outside of gaming to attend to - they are in no hurry to deal with the issue of online poker/gaming.

2016 and beyond - who can effect a change?

PokerStars/Amaya: The big companies have an important role to play in CA online poker being brought to the forefront of the debate.

PokerStars and parent Amaya have a significant say in matters because of the potential revenue they will bring to the area, plus their expertise in the market could allow them to realise some kind of deal with racetrack vendors.

Their recent trials and tribulations in New Jersey have afforded them more insight into how the "politicking" of poker regulation works than any other body in the nation. Problems elsewhere with the RAWA act and other such debates are not (yet) at the heart of California online poker debates.

The problem in Cailfornia has been the "bad actor" clause that the opposition tribes want included in legislation, but with Stars re-emergence in New Jersey this could change. And it could be a highly significant change.

And even if some might prefer a less-recognised poker site to take up the reins with the tribal problems, PokerStars and Amaya can certainly involve themselves in the background to help push for a settlement, of sorts.

As discussed in OPR, their “partners including San Manuel and the Commerce, speak the local language and are far better suited to serve as the tip of the spear for online poker regulation.”

The Public

The biggest poker players in the market can also leverage huge public support. As mentioned, without a public thrust towards regulation and opening online poker it is unlikely that 2016 could bring more than the modest gains of this year. PokerStars are well-placed to help propel the public view into the Californian mix.

The next 12 months could prove to be the most significant year for California’s online poker and gaming future, and everyone has a part to play in it!